Quarterly Status Report VI  
Reporting Period: 01.01.99 – 30.06.99

Partial Report ‘Climate Analysis/Modelling’    

Potsdam-Institute for Climate Impact Research

Dr. F. W. Gerstengarbe

1 Objectives

The most important results for the discipline „climate analysis/modelling" for the period 1/99 - 6/99 are:

Planned activities:

PA1 Collection and testing of meteorological data (PIK climate stations)

PA2 Investigation of the spatial and temporal behaviour of selected statistical parameters

PA3 Description of the steering circulation mechanism for the region

PA4 Calculation of different scenario runs

Modifications:

- Lack of data at the station Tauá because of technical problems

- In addition to the REMO test runs the LM (Local Model) of the German Weather Service was introduced into the investigations.

2 Progress and results

a) Work progress

According to the work and time schedule for the partial project, the following works where carried out between January and July 1999:

a.1 Literature research

There was no special literature research.

a.2 Data preparation

The data series of the PIK stations were prepared for common use and presented in the WAVES home page at PIK (PA1).

a.3 Analysis

Using the new developed method to estimate beginning, end and duration of dry or wet periods first calculations were made for future climate scenarios. This work is going on (PA2).

A first data set (expected future precipitation in the investigation area calculated by a GCM ECHAM-3 run) was made available by the Meteorological Institute of the University of Bonn - working contract (PA3).

Additionally investigations:

Calculation of the shifting of climate zones in the investigation area on the basis of the new calculated data sets (results in preparation).

a.4 Modelling

Providing of a „user adapted" shell for testing different versions of the regional climate models REMO and LM.

Carrying out of test runs of the LM.

Implementation of a validation module for the statistical description of regional model runs (PA2).

a.5 Scenario development

Inclusion of the GCM ECHAM-3 data set into the scenario calculations (s. poster) (PA4).

b) Partnership

- Preparation of a working visit of Dr. G. Bürger at FUNCEME in the second half of the year.

- Participation of Dipl.-Phys. U. Böhm at the workshop from April 7 - 9 Fortaleza and from April 10 -13 informational meeting with our co-operational partner FUNCEME.

c) Exploitation

The developed models (cluster model, scenario model, shifted version of the Mann-Kendall test) are used within the following other research projects:

- Brandenburg study

- Special research field 1651 of the German Research Community (DFG)

- Technical University Berlin (Soil investigations)

- Climate investigations in Sudan

- Climate classification of Germany within the BMBF project No. 01LK9528/2

- GLOWA-Elbe project (in preparation)

3 Project management structure

The management will be realised as planned by the Steering Committee, the management group and direct contacts between the involved scientists.

4 Outlook

The work will be continued in correspondence with confirmed working plan of the project

5 Administrative Aspects

- No changes.

6 Additional activities

Because of the technical problems at the Tauá station an additional visit was necessary to repair the measuring instruments.